XRP Price Outlook for 2026: RSI Signals Point To A Completed Dip

Introductory image depicting XRP's potential for a bright future.

XRP's 2026 Outlook: Technical Signals Hint at a Major Rebound Post-Dip

After weathering a significant downtrend in recent weeks, following what was an undoubtedly bullish cycle earlier in 2025, XRP has once again found itself at a crucial juncture. The crypto market, ever-focused on what lies ahead, is now shifting its attention from short-term volatility to the potential for a substantial recovery and growth into the new year and beyond, particularly eyeing 2026.

XRP Price Trend Last 7 Days

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Intriguingly, in-depth technical analysis leveraging indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests that current price action might be meticulously laying the groundwork for XRP to potentially enter a period of strong performance. While the broader market may not yet fully acknowledge these subtle shifts, seasoned analysts are seeing compelling patterns emerge.

📌 Event Background: XRP's Journey Through Volatility and Regulatory Hurdles

⚖️ XRP's trajectory has been a story defined by both groundbreaking utility and persistent regulatory challenges. Its underlying technology, designed for fast and low-cost international payments, has always promised significant disruption to traditional finance. However, the multi-year legal battle with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) cast a long shadow, suppressing price discovery and dampening investor sentiment.

Despite these headwinds, XRP has demonstrated remarkable resilience. Periods of regulatory clarity, even partial ones, have historically triggered explosive rallies, showcasing the pent-up demand and potential institutional interest that lies beneath the surface. The "bullish cycle earlier in the year" likely refers to one such period, where optimism around further legal developments or broader market momentum temporarily lifted the token.

⚖️ Today, as we head into late 2025, the conversation has evolved. While the SEC case continues to be a backdrop, the market is increasingly mature, and institutional vehicles like Spot XRP ETFs are no longer a distant dream but a tangible possibility being actively discussed. This potential for new capital inflows, coupled with the token's established use case, makes current price movements exceptionally significant for long-term investors.

📌 Market Impact Analysis: Decoding the Signals for 2026

RSI Signals a Completed Dip: A Foundation for Recovery

One of the most compelling arguments for a bullish outlook comes from the 3-day Relative Strength Index (RSI). Prominent analyst Dark Defender has highlighted that XRP's RSI has consistently dropped into a zone historically associated with the completion of price corrections. This pattern was observed in 2024, where similar RSI conditions preceded decisive moves to the upside.

Visualizing the shift from a downtrend to a potential uptrend.

The accompanying technical charts reinforce this perspective, showing XRP stabilizing near a critical horizontal support region. This stabilization, coupled with the RSI flattening near oversold territory, suggests that selling pressure is nearing exhaustion. Even if the price action continues to trade sideways in the immediate short term, this technical setup often precedes a significant market reversal. For investors, this implies that the current levels could represent a strong accumulation zone, rather than a continuation of the downtrend.

Elliott Wave Theory: Projecting a Massive Impulse Rally

Beyond the RSI, XRP's price structure, as analyzed through the lens of Elliott Wave Theory, further strengthens the bullish case. The visual Elliott Wave count on the 3-day timeframe indicates that the recent decline aligns perfectly within a corrective sequence, specifically on a sub-impulse wave 5. This sub-wave is part of a larger fourth impulse wave that initiated as far back as early 2025.

According to Elliott Wave principles, a completed fourth impulse wave is expected to be followed by an expansive impulsive Wave 5, which invariably resolves to the upside. The projected path suggests that a confirmed breakout from this current structure could propel XRP into a massive rally. The specific price target identified by Dark Defender's analysis is around the 2.618 Fibonacci extension, which stands at an ambitious $5.85.

⚖️ This technical confluence of RSI suggesting a completed dip and Elliott Wave predicting an imminent Wave 5 rally provides a powerful narrative for potential upside. Such a rally would not only benefit XRP holders but could also inject significant bullish sentiment across the broader altcoin market, potentially signaling the start of a new mini-cycle for certain sectors.

Contextual Factors: Scarcity and ETF Optimism

Dark Defender also links this technical setup to timing, suggesting that the period around Christmas and the New Year could coincide with improving market sentiment, positioning XRP to "shine after the holidays." This seasonal optimism often plays a role in crypto market dynamics. Moreover, the analyst pointed to "upcoming scarcity" as another factor. This likely refers to the long-term implications of potential Spot XRP ETFs, which could lock up significant supply, creating demand-side pressure that drives prices higher.

Close-up on XRP holding, with bullish market indicators.

📌 Key Stakeholders’ Positions

Stakeholder	Position/Key Detail
Dark Defender (Analyst)	📈 Identifies current XRP price action as a "completed dip" based on 3-day RSI, setting up for a strong bullish Wave 5 to $5.85.
👥 Retail Investors	📊 Currently divided between caution due to recent downtrend and anticipation for 2026, looking for clear signals of reversal.
👥 🏛️ Institutional Investors	Increasing interest, particularly with discussions around potential Spot XRP ETFs hinting at future scarcity and significant capital inflows.
Ripple (XRP Issuer)	💰 Focused on expanding real-world utility and clarity in the regulatory landscape, which directly impacts XRP's market perception and potential.

The analyst Dark Defender's bullish stance, backed by specific technical indicators, stands in contrast to the short-term caution of many retail investors who have experienced the recent downtrend. However, the growing narrative around XRP ETFs and potential scarcity aligns the interests of long-term holders and institutions, suggesting that fundamental factors are catching up to the technical predictions. This interplay of technical prowess and fundamental catalysts creates a potentially explosive scenario for investors.

📌 Future Outlook: Navigating the Road to $5.85 and Beyond

🚀 The path forward for XRP appears increasingly defined by a blend of technical resilience and evolving market dynamics. Should the forecasted Wave 5 materialize, XRP could experience a substantial rally, potentially reaching the $5.85 target and establishing new all-time highs. This would undoubtedly generate significant interest, drawing both new capital and renewed speculation.

The development of Spot XRP ETFs remains a pivotal long-term catalyst. Approval of such a product would not only legitimize XRP further in the eyes of traditional finance but also provide a regulated, accessible avenue for institutional investment, creating sustained demand. While regulatory clarity is always a consideration for XRP, the market in 2025 is more adept at pricing in potential outcomes.

For investors, this outlook presents both opportunities and risks. The opportunity lies in the potential for significant capital appreciation if these technical signals and fundamental catalysts converge. The risk, as always, is that technical patterns can fail, and regulatory hurdles, though diminishing, can still introduce volatility. However, the current confluence of indicators suggests that XRP is in a strong position to build a base for a powerful upward movement into 2026.

📌 🔑 Key Takeaways

• RSI Signals Bottom: The 3-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) for XRP indicates a completed dip, historically preceding significant price recoveries.
• Elliott Wave Target: Technical analysis suggests XRP is poised for an impulsive Wave 5 rally, with a potential target of $5.85 based on the 2.618 Fibonacci extension.
• Strategic Timing: The period around year-end and early 2026 is highlighted as a potential timeframe for improving sentiment and a significant price surge.
• ETF Catalyst: Discussions around potential Spot XRP ETFs are contributing to long-term scarcity narratives and could drive institutional demand.

🔮 Thoughts & Predictions

As we close out 2025, the market's attention on XRP is shifting from the recent slump to its robust technical underpinnings. The confluence of a 3-day RSI signaling a 'completed dip' and the compelling Elliott Wave Theory projection for an impulsive Wave 5 suggests that XRP is currently in a critical accumulation phase, ripe for a substantial upward movement into 2026. This isn't just wishful thinking; it's a pattern that has delivered significant returns historically.

Illustrating the RSI indicator signaling a completed price correction.

From my perspective, the narrative of "upcoming scarcity" tied to Spot XRP ETFs is gaining serious traction and provides a fundamental tailwind that perfectly complements the bullish technical outlook. A confirmed breakout from current stabilization levels could trigger a rapid revaluation towards the $5.85 target, representing a staggering multi-fold increase from current prices. This move would likely not be linear, but the foundational support and institutional interest suggest a more sustainable trajectory than previous speculative pumps.

While market volatility always remains a factor, the indicators are clear: XRP is building a formidable base. Investors should be prepared for potentially explosive price action in the medium-term, particularly as we move past the holiday season and into Q1 2026. The window for strategic positioning at these levels may be closing faster than many realize.

🎯 Investor Action Tips

• Monitor Key Support: Closely watch the $1.86 to $1.90 range and the $1.8815 (1.618 Fibonacci) level for sustained support, as a breach could invalidate immediate bullish projections.
• Track ETF Developments: Stay updated on news regarding Spot XRP ETF applications and approvals, as this will be a major catalyst for long-term price action and scarcity.
• Analyze Volume on Breakout: Look for significant trading volume accompanying any breakout above recent resistance levels to confirm the strength of the bullish move.
• Consider Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA): For long-term investors, consider using a DCA strategy around current price levels to average into a position ahead of a potential Wave 5 rally.

📘 Glossary for Serious Investors

📈 Relative Strength Index (RSI): A momentum oscillator used in technical analysis that measures the speed and change of price movements. It ranges from 0 to 100, typically indicating overbought conditions above 70 and oversold conditions below 30.

🌊 Elliott Wave Theory: A technical analysis tool that proposes market prices move in recognizable wave patterns (impulses and corrections) that reflect investor psychology, often predicting future price movements based on fractal patterns.

📐 Fibonacci Extension: A tool used by technical analysts to project potential price targets or resistance levels beyond established highs or lows, based on the Fibonacci sequence. The 2.618 extension is a common, more aggressive target.

🧭 Context of the Day

XRP's deeply oversold technicals and looming ETF catalysts signal a pivotal moment for investors eyeing significant long-term gains in 2026.

📈 RIPPLE Market Trend Last 7 Days

Date	Price (USD)	7D Change
12/16/2025	$1.90	+0.00%
12/17/2025	$1.93	+1.73%
12/18/2025	$1.86	-1.85%
12/19/2025	$1.81	-4.70%
12/20/2025	$1.91	+0.49%
12/21/2025	$1.93	+1.85%
12/22/2025	$1.92	+1.38%
12/23/2025	$1.90	+-0.00%

Data provided by CoinGecko Integration.

💬 Investment Wisdom

"The best time to buy is when there's blood in the streets."
— Baron Rothschild

Crypto Market Pulse

December 22, 2025, 21:12 UTC

Total Market Cap

$3.08 T ▲ 0.23% (24h)

Bitcoin Dominance (BTC)

57.39%

Ethereum Dominance (ETH)

11.70%

Total 24h Volume

$110.87 B

Data from CoinGecko

This post builds upon insights from the original news article. Original article.

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