XRP Price Breaks $1 Mark, $0.87 Target: Weak Bounces Confirm Seller Grip

A critical support level for the digital asset shows fracture, signaling an imminent market shift.

XRP's $1 Illusion: Why the $0.87 Target Isn't Just Technical Noise 📉

The market has been conditioned to see XRP above $1 as a sign of resilience. For over a year, this psychological and technical barrier has held. Yet, the whispers of a sharp downturn are growing louder, and the recent price action suggests a grip loosening, not tightening.

XRP Price Trend Last 7 Days

The sentiment has been one of cautious optimism for XRP holders, clinging to the $1 mark as a stable foothold. However, a closer look at the on-chain data and market structure reveals a far less rosy picture, one where sellers are not just present, but actively dictating terms.

An impending market downturn looms large, threatening to unravel previous gains and stability.

The Exhaustion Trap: Where Bounces Become Bait 🎣

Recent price movements for XRP are not signs of strength; they are textbook examples of seller exhaustion. Each attempted rally has been systematically capped around the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level. This isn't a coincidence; it's a deliberate defense by those holding short positions.

The failure of buyers to push past these shallow retracements indicates a critical lack of conviction in the market. Instead of initiating sustained upward momentum, these bounces are being met with immediate selling pressure, reinforcing a bearish structure that appears deeply entrenched.

This pattern strongly suggests XRP is carving out a significant Wave 3 decline within the Elliott Wave framework. In this theory, Wave 3 is notorious for being the most aggressive and directional phase of any trend. The current price action aligns disturbingly well with this prediction.

According to this analysis, XRP could see intermediate subwave targets around $1.06 and potentially as low as $1.09 during this Wave 3. These levels are derived from prior liquidity zones and Fibonacci extensions, indicating strong technical confluence for a downturn.

Faltering attempts at recovery reveal the underlying strength of persistent selling pressure.

Following this aggressive push lower, a temporary relief bounce, characterized as Wave 4, is anticipated. This corrective phase might push XRP back into the $1.22 to $1.31 range. However, this would merely be a pause, a brief breath against the prevailing bearish tide, not a reversal.

The Sub-$1 Reality Check: More Than Just a Correction 🚨

The true concern for XRP investors lies beyond the immediate correction. After Wave 4, the final impulse wave, Wave 5, is expected to commence. This is where the technical prognosis becomes particularly stark.

The projection points towards a significant move towards a major macro support zone around $0.87. This target is anchored to the 0.854 Fibonacci retracement on a larger cycle. This isn't just a minor dip; it’s a substantial retracement that challenges the year-long hold above $1.

What's crucial to understand is that this five-wave subwave count is itself part of a larger Wave 2 corrective wave. This means that even a bottom around $0.87 would not signal an end to the bearish cycle. Instead, it would set the stage for a much larger Wave 3, which analysts predict could eventually propel XRP prices back above $2.

This sequence implies that the current $1 level is less a floor and more a precarious perch before a more significant descent.

Technical resistance at key Fibonacci levels strongly repels renewed buying enthusiasm.

Stakeholder	Position/Key Detail
Crypto Analyst (CasiTrades)	🥀 Warns of multi-stage decline, targets $0.87
XRP Price Action	Consistent rejection at 0.382 Fibonacci retracement
🌍 Market Buyers	Lack of conviction, rapid selling on bounces
Elliott Wave Theory	🥀 XRP playing out Wave 3 decline
🎯 Technical Targets	$1.09, $1.06 (Wave 3), $1.22-$1.31 (Wave 4), $0.87 (Wave 5)

The Ripple Effect: Lessons from 2018's Overvaluation 🕰️

Looking back, the situation for XRP now shares an uncomfortable resemblance to the market euphoria of late 2017 and early 2018. While the circumstances aren't identical, the narrative of sustained price above a perceived key level, followed by a sharp correction, is a pattern we've seen before.

Consider the aftermath of the 2017 bull run. Many altcoins, including XRP, experienced parabolic growth, only to see a subsequent collapse that wiped out significant gains. The period saw massive speculation and inflated valuations, often supported by narrative rather than fundamental utility. What followed was a brutal bear market, a harsh reminder that hype can blind investors to underlying structural weaknesses.

In my view, the current technical breakdown for XRP, particularly the failure to hold support and the repeated rejections, echoes the signals that preceded the 2018 downturn. The market was fixated on price milestones, overlooking the inevitable re-calibration that occurs when speculative fervor wanes. The fact that XRP has been above $1 for so long, despite significant market shifts, may have fostered a false sense of security, much like the sentiment that allowed speculative bubbles to inflate prior to 2018.

The key difference today is the increased regulatory scrutiny and the more mature, albeit still volatile, institutional interest. However, the core mechanism of speculative excess leading to a painful correction remains a potent force. The $0.87 target isn't just a technical anomaly; it's a stark warning that the market's perception of XRP's current valuation may be detached from its immediate price trajectory, a lesson painfully learned in 2018.

The Path Ahead: Navigating the Sell-Off 🧭

The immediate future for XRP appears tilted towards downside risk, with the $0.87 level acting as a significant gravitational pull. Investors need to brace for potential volatility as this technical breakdown plays out.

The experienced observer warns of a multi-stage decline, foreseeing deeper corrections ahead.

However, the Elliott Wave analysis also presents a compelling long-term picture. The predicted Wave 3 into Wave 5 decline, followed by a larger Wave 3, suggests that a substantial recovery could be on the horizon after the current bearish cycle concludes. This duality presents both a short-term challenge and a long-term opportunity for those with the patience to endure the potential downturn.

📈 The $0.87 Catalyst and the $2 Horizon

The current technical breakdown suggests a strong probability of testing the $0.87 support level. This level will be a critical inflection point, not just for XRP's short-term survival above $1 but for its long-term recovery prospects. While the immediate outlook is bearish, the projected Elliott Wave structure indicates a potential for significant upside beyond the current cycle's resolution.

🎯 Investor Action: What to Watch for XRP

Monitor XRP's ability to reclaim and hold the $1.06 level as a first sign of short-term buying strength. A failure to do so reinforces the bearish Wave 3 narrative.
Watch for capitulation volume as XRP approaches the $0.87 support. A strong surge in selling volume at this level would confirm the target and potentially signal the end of the Wave 5 decline.
Track the development of the subsequent Wave 4 bounce, specifically if it remains confined within the projected $1.22 to $1.31 range, indicating the broader bearish trend remains intact before a larger Wave 3 recovery.

🧮 The Elliott Wave Lexicon

Fibonacci Retracement: A technical analysis tool used to identify potential support and resistance levels based on the Fibonacci sequence. Ratios like 0.382, 0.786, and 0.854 are commonly used to predict price targets.

Elliott Wave Theory: A form of technical analysis that attempts to forecast market behavior by identifying recurring patterns, primarily impulse waves (moves in the direction of the main trend) and corrective waves (moves against the trend).

The $0.87 Liquidity Contradiction

If the market has truly embraced XRP as a global payment solution, why is a sub-$1 price point considered a major support zone, and what does this tell us about the actual liquidity supporting its current valuation?

📈 RIPPLE Market Trend Last 7 Days

Date	Price (USD)	7D Change
3/27/2026	$1.36	+0.00%
3/28/2026	$1.32	-2.63%
3/29/2026	$1.33	-2.03%
3/30/2026	$1.33	-2.43%
3/31/2026	$1.32	-2.77%
4/1/2026	$1.34	-1.49%
4/2/2026	$1.31	-3.43%

Data provided by CoinGecko Integration.

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