Bitcoin whales hold unrealized profit: The 0.36 accumulation pivot

Institutional BTC accumulation remains hidden within resilient long-term holding structures during periods of market uncertainty

The Uncomfortable Truth: Why Bitcoin’s Whales Are Quiet – And What It Means For Your Portfolio

💔 The crypto market in 2025 is a buzzing hive of speculation, especially around Bitcoin's next colossal run. Everyone's chasing signals – price forecasts, macro narratives, the latest ETF flows. But ignore the noise for a moment, and look at the cold, hard data. Because a recent chart, dropped by Alphractal founder Joao Wedson on February 16, 2025, just cut through the hype with a historical pattern that should make every serious investor pause.

This isn't about short-term pumps or Twitter trends. This is about the deep mechanics of market cycles, and what they’re whispering about where we really are.

The potential end of BTC downside pressure marks a critical psychological threshold for global digital asset investors

BTC Price Trend Last 7 Days

Powered by CryptoCompare

📌 Understanding The Bitcoin Whales Playbook NUPL Explained

➖ Wedson’s analysis zeros in on the Long-Term Holder Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric. This isn't some obscure indicator; it’s a direct window into the financial health of Bitcoin’s most steadfast investors – the "whales" or "HODLers" who've held through every storm.

🤑 The NUPL measures the average unrealized gains or losses for these long-term participants. These are the wallets known for their iron grip, selling only when absolutely necessary, or when truly massive profits are on the table. In short, their sentiment matters immensely.

Currently, the reading sits at 0.36. What does 0.36 mean? It means these long-term holders are, on average, still sitting on unrealized profits. Their Bitcoin is worth more than what they paid for it.

🏃 The chart itself paints a stark picture: green zones mean profit. Historically, these phases either mark the tail end of a bull run or periods of market consolidation. The persistence of green right now suggests that the kind of deep, gut-wrenching market stress that truly shakes out the weak hands hasn't fully hit the conviction investors yet.

📍 The Red Zone The Real Signal for Bitcoins Next Ascent

Now, here's the kicker. Wedson's analysis highlights the critical moments when the Long-Term Holder NUPL dives below zero – the "red zone." This is when even the most patient investors are underwater, holding unrealized losses.

Unrealized BTC profits among veteran participants suggest a foundational shift in current market valuation and sentiment

🐻 Historically, these red zones coincide with late-stage bear markets. Think widespread pessimism, capitulation, and valuations compressed to an absolute minimum. Wedson describes it as the period of "maximum market depression," where financial pain isn't just for the day traders; it hits long-term capital too.

🟢 But here’s the crucial part: these negative phases have historically preceded every single major Bitcoin bull cycle. Each time the metric went red, it aligned with seller exhaustion, reduced distribution pressure, and a transfer of coins from weak hands to stronger, more patient entities. It's a reset button.

⏫ The red zone isn't a sign of weakness; it’s the clearing of the deck. It's where excess leverage is purged, speculative froth is blown off, and the foundation for the next explosive rally is laid. True opportunity, in this framework, appears not during the comfortable profit phases, but in these times of maximum pain.

The uncomfortable implication? With the NUPL still comfortably positive at 0.36, the chart suggests that, based strictly on historical precedent, the final, market-cleansing capitulation before the next truly epic bull run... hasn't happened yet.

📍 Market Impact Analysis The Ghost of Cycles Past

⏫ This NUPL reading throws a wrench into the prevailing optimism currently gripping the market. Many are calling for an immediate parabolic surge, fueled by institutional inflows and mainstream adoption. But if history is any guide, the market may be getting ahead of itself, pricing in a rally that lacks a foundational reset.

Short-term, this could translate to increased volatility. As this indicator gains more attention, it might temper enthusiasm and encourage profit-taking, especially among those who bought into the recent narrative-driven pumps. Expect a sharper reaction if Bitcoin price action attempts a deeper correction, potentially exacerbating selling pressure.

Experienced traders monitor the BTC profit positioning to determine the probability of impending market expansion phases

🐂 Long-term, if the NUPL pattern holds true, it suggests that any significant, sustainable bull run will only emerge after a period of significant long-term holder pain. This implies a potential for either a prolonged consolidation phase, grinding down impatient investors, or a sharp, sudden capitulation event designed to shake out remaining weak hands. Sector transformations, especially in DeFi and NFTs, often ride on the back of Bitcoin's macro movements. A stalled or corrective BTC could see these sectors languish or even face deeper drawdowns, as speculative capital dries up awaiting Bitcoin's clearer signal.

📌 Stakeholder Analysis & Historical Parallel The 2018 Shakeout

🐻 Let's cast our minds back to the 2018-2019 Bear Market Bottom. Following the euphoria of the 2017 bull run and the subsequent ICO bust, Bitcoin entered a brutal, protracted bear market. The price tumbled from nearly $20,000 down to roughly $3,200. This period saw the NUPL metric plunge deep into negative territory, indicating that even long-term holders were facing significant unrealized losses.

💸 The outcome of that past event was painful but ultimately constructive. Retail investors, tired of the relentless downward pressure, capitulated. Coins were sold at a loss and accumulated by a new wave of conviction holders and institutions with stronger balance sheets. The lesson learned? True bottoms are forged in the crucible of retail despair, allowing smart money to accumulate at generational discounts.

💪 In my view, this appears to be a calculated waiting game by institutional players. They’ve seen this movie before. They understand that a genuine, sustainable bull market requires a reset, a transfer of wealth. Today’s scenario is critically different from late 2018. Back then, long-term holders were deeply underwater. Today, they're still in profit. This disparity suggests the market hasn't yet completed the necessary cleansing phase. The current bullish sentiment, fueled by new money and ETFs, is running ahead of the cyclical fundamentals. The big players won't trigger the real ascent until the retail "tourists" have either been flushed out or consolidated by prolonged sideways action.

Stakeholder	Position/Key Detail
Joao Wedson (Alphractal CEO)	🟢 Published chart showing NUPL at 0.36; highlights historical pattern of negative NUPL preceding bull runs.
Long-Term Bitcoin Holders	Currently holding significant aggregate unrealized profits; not yet in "capitulation" territory.
🌍 Bitcoin Market (Retail/Speculators)	🐂 Exhibiting strong bullish sentiment; potentially over-optimistic given NUPL's historical signals.

📌 Future Outlook The Inevitable Cycle

The crypto market and its regulatory environment are always evolving, but some fundamental market dynamics remain constant. This NUPL signal is a powerful reminder that while narratives can drive short-term price action, deep cycle mechanics often dictate the truly significant shifts. Regulators, always a step behind, are currently focused on stablecoins and institutional safeguards, but they're still grappling with basic market structure. This means the wild west elements of crypto cycles remain largely unmitigated.

🚀 Expect a continued divergence between institutional enthusiasm (driving demand for "safe" regulated products like ETFs) and the underlying, more volatile on-chain reality. Opportunities will arise for those with the patience to wait for the true reset, rather than chasing the current rally. The risk, of course, is being caught in a prolonged consolidation or a sudden downturn if the market decides to align with historical NUPL signals.

Capital flows into BTC indicate a strategic reconfiguration ahead of the next major cycle transition and growth

The bottom line? Don't let the green candles blind you to the historical roadmap. The smartest money waits for the real deals, and the real deals often come with a heavy dose of pain first.

🔑 Key Takeaways

• Bitcoin’s Long-Term Holder NUPL metric is currently at 0.36, indicating long-term holders are still comfortably profitable.
• Historically, major Bitcoin bull markets are only initiated after the NUPL dips into negative territory, signifying a period of widespread long-term holder losses and capitulation.
• This suggests the market may not have experienced the necessary "final capitulation" or full reset required for a truly sustainable and explosive next bull run.
• Investor sentiment, heavily influenced by positive ETF flows and bullish narratives, might be premature and out of sync with these fundamental cycle mechanics.

🔮 Thoughts & Predictions

Connecting this NUPL signal to the 2018-2019 bear market bottom is critical. That period saw immense pain before the genuine accumulation began, leading to a multi-year rally. This time, the market's current euphoria, without that deep-seated suffering among long-term holders, implies a more fragile foundation. The big players aren't ready to let retail ride a new parabolic wave without a proper shakeout first, aiming for a more advantageous entry.

I foresee a medium-term period (the next 6-12 months) where Bitcoin's price action could become frustratingly choppy or even see a sharp, unexpected correction. While mainstream adoption efforts continue, the on-chain data suggests a fundamental market cycle reset is pending. Expect strategic maneuvers designed to induce fear and doubt, potentially pushing the NUPL below zero, before the true, multi-year expansion begins.

The long-term outlook for Bitcoin remains robust, but the path isn't a straight line up. This isn't a call for panic, but a harsh reality check. Smart money will patiently wait for the "red zone" to re-emerge, recognizing that the most lucrative opportunities are born from widespread market depression, not from current optimism.

🎯 Investor Action Tips

• Monitor NUPL Closely: Track the Long-Term Holder NUPL metric for any signs of a shift into negative territory; this could signal a generational accumulation opportunity.
• Exercise Caution with Leverage: Avoid over-leveraging based on current bullish sentiment, as a market reset could lead to significant liquidations.
• Prepare for Deeper Corrections: Allocate dry powder to take advantage of potential price dips, especially if Bitcoin falls into a period of extreme pessimism.
• Focus on Long-Term Accumulation: Consider a dollar-cost averaging strategy that anticipates further volatility rather than chasing short-term pumps.

📘 Glossary for Serious Investors

NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss): An on-chain metric that measures the overall unrealized gains or losses of Bitcoin holders, often broken down by short-term vs. long-term holders. A positive NUPL means holders are, on average, in profit; negative means they are in loss.

Capitulation: A market event where investors, exhausted by sustained losses and negative sentiment, aggressively sell their assets at any price, marking a potential market bottom as weak hands exit.

🧭 Context of the Day

Today's Bitcoin NUPL reading signals that despite bullish narratives, a historical market reset for long-term holders may still be necessary before a truly sustainable bull run takes hold.

📈 BITCOIN Market Trend Last 7 Days

Date	Price (USD)	7D Change
2/11/2026	$68,779.91	+0.00%
2/12/2026	$66,937.58	-2.68%
2/13/2026	$66,184.58	-3.77%
2/14/2026	$68,838.87	+0.09%
2/15/2026	$69,765.60	+1.43%
2/16/2026	$68,716.58	-0.09%
2/17/2026	$68,907.78	+0.19%
2/18/2026	$67,168.07	-2.34%

Data provided by CoinGecko Integration.

💬 Investment Wisdom

"The market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient."
— Warren Buffett

Crypto Market Pulse

February 17, 2026, 17:40 UTC

Total Market Cap

$2.39 T ▼ -0.64% (24h)

Bitcoin Dominance (BTC)

56.13%

Ethereum Dominance (ETH)

9.94%

Total 24h Volume

$91.94 B

Data from CoinGecko

You Might Also Like

Binance sees COMP mass exodus to storage: A silent capital re-alignment begins

Click to read more...

SBI Holdings Refutes 10 Billion XRP: A 10B Liquidity Mirage

Click to read more...