Bitcoin Price Nears 65k Pivot Point: Stage 6 Reality Check

The current BTC price action suggests a precarious balance atop a significant psychological threshold.

Bitcoin's Relentless Bear: Why $65,000 Isn't the Floor, It's Just the Latest Trap

📉 Bitcoin's price is consolidating around $65,000 on the weekly chart, a figure that for many retail investors might feel like a welcome breather. But before anyone cracks open the champagne, let's inject a dose of reality. According to veteran crypto analyst Doctor Profit, we're not just in a bear market; we're deep into a structured, multi-stage unwinding that still has significant downside potential.

⚖️ The "easy money" phase is long gone. The current calm near $65,000 is less a sign of strength and more a strategic pause in a broader, painful repricing. This isn't random market noise; it's a textbook deleveraging event playing out precisely as it has for cycles, lulling participants into a false sense of security before the next leg down.

The underlying bear market structure imposes a heavy burden on current BTC recovery efforts.

BTC Price Trend Last 7 Days

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🚩 Deconstructing the Descent A SixStage Bear Market Blueprint

🩸 Earlier this year, Doctor Profit laid out a compelling six-stage framework for Bitcoin bear markets, drawing parallels from every major cycle since the beginning. His analysis, released on February 22, isn't about arbitrary price levels; it highlights recurring drivers like liquidity mechanics, excessive leverage, and the highly predictable human psychology of greed and panic.

Stage 1: The Euphoric Peak — When Everyone Was Rich (on Paper)

The journey began in early 2025, with Bitcoin trading between $115,000 and $125,000. This was pure euphoria. Despite clear signals of an overleveraged market, sideways price action and sudden spikes created an illusion of sustained strength. Late entrants believed risk had vanished, fueling extreme price predictions and the highest phase of greed.

Stage 2: The Psychological Breach — $100,000 Falls

The first crack appeared when Bitcoin dipped below the critical $100,000 psychological barrier. This wasn't just a number; it was the trigger for initial stress among short-term investors and forced liquidations for overextended leveraged traders. The subsequent price drop was rapid and brutal, culminating in the October 10, 2025, flash crash—one of the largest single-day liquidation events in crypto history.

Stage 3: The Brutal Confirmation — A 50% Wipeout

🚨 The bear market was unequivocally confirmed in Stage 3, a period of relentless decline. From $97,000 in January 2026, Bitcoin plunged to $47,000 in February—a more than 50% crash from the all-time highs in just 30 days. This phase was characterized by unprecedented speed and severity, wiping out nearly half of Bitcoin's market capitalization and completing what can only be described as a "violent mechanical repricing."

Historical BTC cycles demonstrate how unbridled market euphoria often precedes a rapid descent into capitulation.

🚩 Current Reality The Dehydration & Depression of Stage 4

💥 So, where are we now? Bitcoin is currently entrenched in Stage 4. This phase is less about violent crashes and more about "dehydration, depression, and liquidity creation." The price chart shows clearly defined sideways boundaries, trapping both breakout traders chasing upside and breakdown sellers hoping for lower prices. It's a grueling grind designed to exhaust retail participants.

This phase also drives the largest short-term holder capitulation. Those who missed the earlier exit points are now being forced to sell at significant losses. Doctor Profit anticipates a temporary bounce within the current range, perhaps between $57,000 and $60,000, before the market likely breaks down towards Stage 5 in the coming months. This isn't recovery; it's a brief respite before the next wave.

📍 The Looming Abyss Stage 5 True Capitulation & Beyond

Stage 5 is described as "true capitulation"—a phase of total fear and panic, potentially triggered by the collapse of a major player or a "black swan event." Doctor Profit has adjusted his ultimate bottom projection from $40,000-$50,000 down to a more sobering $35,000-$45,000. This indicates another substantial leg down, where the final, painful phase of selling will play out.

Only after this will Stage 6 commence: a period of sustained sideways movement coupled with structural recovery. Selling pressure will gradually dissipate, allowing large players to begin their accumulation phase. Retail investors, scarred by losses and still hoping for even lower prices, will likely miss the actual market bottom, repeating the cycle of buying high and selling low. It's a predictable, uncomfortable truth of these cycles.

📍 span stylebackgroundcolor ffeb3bMarket Impact The Unseen Costs of Predictable Panicspan

The immediate impact is sustained volatility, but the deeper effect is a profound shift in investor psychology. The market isn't just repricing assets; it's recalibrating expectations. This prolonged sideways action in Stage 4, despite being less violent, is arguably more insidious. It drains capital, breaks spirits, and sets up retail for the final capitulation by trapping them in a range.

Deep structural analysis identifies recurring patterns of leverage and liquidity within the Bitcoin ecosystem.

For institutions and sophisticated traders, these stages are not just observations but opportunities. They generate liquidity by exploiting predictable human behavior. While stablecoins might see temporary inflows during panic, and DeFi protocols face stress tests from deleveraging, the real game here is the transfer of wealth from weak hands to strong, patient capital. This cycle reinforces the narrative that true accumulation happens when the pain is at its peak, not when the price looks "cheap" after a significant drop.

🚩 Stakeholder Analysis & Historical Parallel The 2018 Crypto Winter Echo

🔴 In my view, the market's collective amnesia regarding these patterns is its most consistent feature. This multi-stage bear market, with its prolonged "dehydration" and eventual "true capitulation," bears striking resemblance to the 2018 Crypto Winter. Back then, Bitcoin fell from its December 2017 peak near $19,000 to a trough around $3,200 by December 2018—an over 80% crash. The year was marked by collapsing altcoins, ICO failures, and a persistent belief that "the bottom is in" at various levels, only for prices to grind lower.

The outcome in 2018 was widespread retail investor devastation, a flight of speculative capital, and a prolonged period of consolidation before the next bull run truly began in late 2020. The lesson was brutal: euphoria leads to overleveraged positions, psychological support levels are often breached, and capitulation is a necessary, painful cleanse.

Today's event is identical in its psychological patterns and the mechanics of deleveraging. However, the scale and the underlying market structure are vastly different. The presence of spot Bitcoin ETFs means a more mature, if still volatile, institutional rail. The liquidity dynamics are more complex, with larger players now having more sophisticated tools to manage risk and accumulate, potentially making the "bottoming out" process more drawn-out and less volatile than the sharp bounces of previous cycles. This isn't random panic; it's a disciplined unwind into weakness, with deeper pockets ready to absorb the supply.

Stakeholder	Position/Key Detail
Doctor Profit (Analyst)	🐻 Framework of six bear market stages, predicting further downside to $35k-$45k.
👥 Retail Investors	Experience "euphoric buying," stress below $100k, forced liquidations, "dehydration," and "depression," often selling at a loss.
Leveraged Traders	Forced out below $100k; experience largest liquidation event in crypto history.
🌍 Market Makers	Actively "trap" breakout traders and breakdown sellers during sideways ranges to generate liquidity.
Large Players	Expected to begin accumulating during Stage 6's structural recovery, capitalising on retail exhaustion.

📍 span stylebackgroundcolor ffeb3bKey Takeawaysspan

💡 Key Takeaways

• Bitcoin is currently in Stage 4 of a six-stage bear market, characterized by dehydration, depression, and strategic liquidity creation by market makers.
• Despite current consolidation around $65,000, the analyst projects further downside, with a "true capitulation" bottom expected between $35,000 and $45,000.
• The current market phase is designed to exhaust retail traders, leading to significant short-term holder capitulation, similar to patterns seen in the 2018 Crypto Winter.
• Institutional involvement and the structural nature of this deleveraging suggest a potentially more drawn-out accumulation phase by large players, contrasting with previous sharp rebounds.

🔮 Thoughts & Predictions

The current market dynamics suggest that the "doctor's orders" for this bear market are strikingly precise, echoing the 2018 Crypto Winter's drawn-out pain. While the initial drop from $125,000 was faster and more violent, the current grind at $65,000 is perhaps more dangerous for the average investor. The illusion of stability in Stage 4 is a masterful psychological trap, creating false hope for a bounce that ultimately fuels the next leg down. It’s a classic re-enactment of investor psychology under duress, where the promise of a recovery often precedes deeper losses.

Stabilization after extreme volatility remains the primary prerequisite for a genuine Bitcoin trend reversal.

From my perspective, the key factor is not just the price target but the duration of the capitulation. Unlike 2018, where institutional interest was nascent, today's market has dedicated infrastructure. This means that while retail is liquidated, smart money isn't just waiting; they are actively positioning. The pathway to the $35,000-$45,000 bottom won't be a straight line, but a series of frustrating fakeouts, designed to extract every last bit of conviction from the market. We will likely see periodic relief rallies that fail to sustain, further solidifying the bear market structure, as evidenced by the historical pattern of "sell the rally" during such cycles.

Ultimately, this prolonged structural recovery (Stage 6) will likely be a multi-year affair, not a V-shaped bounce. Investors who understand this dynamic and prepare for a long, painful accumulation phase will be the ones who truly benefit. The short-to-mid-term outlook points to continued capital preservation as a priority, with significant buying opportunities only emerging once genuine panic, likely triggered by a major systemic event, washes out the final weak hands. The next true bull market won't begin with a roar, but with a whimper, amidst widespread skepticism.

🎯 Investor Action Tips

• Reassess Risk Exposure: If your portfolio is still heavily weighted in volatile assets, consider reducing exposure, especially if you bought into the 2025 euphoria above $100,000.
• Prepare for the Capitulation: Allocate capital for potential accumulation in the $35,000-$45,000 range, but be patient; the market may take months to reach this.
• Avoid Leverage: The current market is designed to liquidate leveraged positions; trading spot without leverage is crucial for survival.
• Monitor Macro Signals: Pay close attention to global liquidity and interest rate policies, as these will heavily influence the duration and depth of the bear market.

📘 Glossary for Serious Investors

⚖️ Liquidation: The forced closing of a leveraged trading position by an exchange due to a loss in the position, causing the margin account to fall below the maintenance margin requirement.

📉 Capitulation: A market phase characterized by intense, widespread selling by investors who are giving up hope of a recovery and are willing to sell at any price to exit positions.

🤝 Short-Term Holder (STH) Capitulation: A specific event where investors who have held an asset for less than ~155 days sell their holdings at a loss, often marking a significant local or macro bottom.

🧭 The Question Nobody's Asking

If these bear market stages are so predictable, why do retail investors consistently fail to act on the lessons, and what will truly break that cycle of painful repetition?

📈 BITCOIN Market Trend Last 7 Days

Date	Price (USD)	7D Change
2/17/2026	$68,907.78	+0.00%
2/18/2026	$67,489.46	-2.06%
2/19/2026	$66,456.35	-3.56%
2/20/2026	$66,918.68	-2.89%
2/21/2026	$67,970.29	-1.36%
2/22/2026	$67,977.91	-1.35%
2/23/2026	$67,585.12	-1.92%
2/24/2026	$64,538.89	-6.34%

Data provided by CoinGecko Integration.

💬 Investment Wisdom

"The market is a pendulum that forever swings between unsustainable optimism and unjustified pessimism."
— Benjamin Graham

Crypto Market Pulse

February 23, 2026, 21:39 UTC

Total Market Cap

$2.30 T ▼ -3.62% (24h)

Bitcoin Dominance (BTC)

56.13%

Ethereum Dominance (ETH)

9.79%

Total 24h Volume

$127.05 B

Data from CoinGecko

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