Bitcoin Holders Await Profit Rally: Long-Term Investors See No Compelling Gains Yet

Observing the fluctuating Bitcoin price, long-term holders remain steadfast.

Bitcoin's price continues its dance below the $90,000 pivotal level, a reality that’s increasingly testing the patience of even the most steadfast long-term Bitcoin holders (LTHs). In the rapidly evolving crypto landscape of 2025, where institutional adoption is deepening and regulatory clarity is slowly emerging, this extended period of price fluctuation and perceived underperformance raises crucial questions for every serious investor.

Are we witnessing a prolonged consolidation before an explosive rally, or is the market already maturing in ways that fundamentally alter traditional cycle dynamics? The current inaction of LTHs, often seen as the market's 'smart money,' provides critical clues.

📌 The LTH Standoff: Why Bitcoin's Most Patient Investors Are Still Waiting

🐻 Historically, Long-Term Bitcoin Holders (LTHs) are the bedrock of Bitcoin's market cycles. These are the investors who typically accumulate during bear markets, ride out volatility, and only begin to distribute their holdings during periods of significant parabolic appreciation, often signaling the onset of 'peak greed.' Their conviction is legendary, often serving as a key indicator for the overall health and future direction of the market.

Presently, despite Bitcoin's impressive run-up from previous lows, LTHs have yet to experience what they deem "truly compelling" profits. Market expert and data analyst CW's recent reports underscore this: these key investors are struggling to realize substantial gains from their positions. This lingering profit gap is not a sign of weakening conviction; rather, it suggests LTHs believe the market has not yet reached its full potential, thus influencing both future supply dynamics and on-chain behavior.

🚀 The fact that Bitcoin’s price has been confined beneath the psychological and technical barrier of the $100,000 mark after its previous all-time high is a critical factor. This situation compels us to question whether the market has already entered a mature bullish phase, or if a more significant, truly rewarding surge is still required to compensate those who have patiently held through multiple cycles. The answer carries profound implications for all investors.

CW's analysis highlights that LTHs currently command a staggering 13.6 million BTC, a hoard valued at an eye-watering $1.2 trillion at current prices. This level of holding is notably comparable to the maximum holding seen during the last Bitcoin market cycle, suggesting immense latent supply poised to enter the market when conditions are ripe. This unprecedented accumulation by LTHs indicates a profound belief in Bitcoin's future upside, effectively creating a supply squeeze that could fuel an explosive rally.

BTC Price Trend Last 7 Days

While these investors are known for their resilience during bearish phases, their behavior is expected to flip dramatically with a sustained upward trend. CW posits that this cohort will begin transferring their holdings to short-term BTC holders (STHs) once the asset decisively shifts toward an upside direction. Such a scenario, according to the analyst, will likely coincide with the "peak of greed" and the apex of the ongoing market cycle, suggesting that the most euphoric phase of this cycle is still to come.

Deeply rooted conviction defines long-term Bitcoin investors during consolidation phases.

📌 Market Impact Analysis: The Calm Before the Storm?

The current state of the Bitcoin market can be characterized by a peculiar calm, as revealed by on-chain metrics. The BTC Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) Indicator, a crucial metric that measures aggressive purchasing versus selling pressure, shows a flatlining trend. This "calm situation" signals that neither bulls nor bears are currently dominating the market, pointing towards a period of significant consolidation.

💧 This market tranquility is largely driven by the current inactivity of BTC whale investors—large holders whose movements can significantly influence price action. Their break from aggressive trading implies that liquidity is stabilizing, many active traders are pulling back, and the market is subtly winding up for its next big move. For investors, this implies that the current low-volatility environment is unlikely to persist, making careful monitoring essential.

The analyst further highlights a significant selling wall forming at the $94,000 price mark. This level is not merely a technical resistance; it represents a psychological barrier that the market needs to overcome for a sustained breakout. Until this wall is decisively breached, or until whale activity shifts from passive observation to active participation, Bitcoin's price is likely to continue its downward or sideways trajectory. The longer this consolidation phase persists without LTHs taking significant profits, the greater the potential energy being stored for an eventual powerful price movement.

📌 Key Stakeholders’ Positions: Who Holds the Cards?

The current Bitcoin market dynamics are a direct reflection of the positions taken by several key stakeholders:

Long-Term Bitcoin Holders (LTHs): Their position is one of unwavering conviction and strategic patience. They are collectively signaling that current price levels (below $90,000-$100,000) do not offer the "compelling profit" required to initiate significant distribution. For investors, this means a substantial portion of Bitcoin's circulating supply remains tightly held, creating a fundamental supply squeeze that could catalyze future upward price movements.

Whale Investors: These large entities are currently observing from the sidelines, their inactivity contributing significantly to the market's consolidation phase. Their eventual re-engagement—whether as aggressive buyers or sellers—will likely serve as a primary catalyst for Bitcoin's next major price movement. Investors should track whale movements closely as an early indicator of market shifts.

Unrealized profits await as Bitcoin's price action tests investor patience.

Market Analysts (e.g., CW): Analysts play a crucial role in interpreting these on-chain signals. CW's insights, pointing to a "profit gap" for LTHs and the absence of a "real rally" in this cycle, guide investor expectations by suggesting that the most explosive growth phase is potentially still ahead. Their predictions about the transfer of supply to STHs at the peak of "greed" provide a framework for understanding market psychology.

Short-Term Bitcoin Holders (STHs): While currently less influential in terms of holding volume compared to LTHs, STHs are the anticipated recipients of Bitcoin supply during a significant rally. Their increasing activity and demand during euphoric phases are expected to contribute to the "peak greed" scenario that often marks a cycle's top. Understanding this anticipated supply transfer is key for investors to gauge market sentiment and potential distribution points.

Stakeholder	Position/Key Detail
Long-Term Holders (LTHs)	Holding 13.6M BTC ($1.2T), strong conviction, awaiting "compelling" profits.
👥 Whale Investors	💰 Currently passive, contributing to market calm, awaiting clearer signals for re-entry.
💰 Market Analyst (CW)	Identifies LTH profit gap, predicts supply shift to STHs, notes no "real rally" yet.
Short-Term Holders (STHs)	Expected recipients of LTH supply during rally, likely to fuel "peak greed" phase.

📌 🔑 Key Takeaways

Current Bitcoin price action below $90,000 isn't incentivizing Long-Term Holders (LTHs) to take profits, signaling a lack of a truly "compelling" rally.
A staggering 13.6 million BTC ($1.2 trillion) remains in LTH hands, comparable to previous cycle peaks, indicating significant latent supply.
On-chain metrics like the Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) show a calm, consolidated market, with major whale investors currently on the sidelines.
The eventual shift in LTH behavior, from holding to distributing to Short-Term Holders (STHs), is predicted to coincide with the market cycle's peak and "peak greed."
A crucial resistance lies at the $94,000 level, which needs to be decisively broken for a sustained upward trend and to unlock the next phase of the bull market.

📌 Future Outlook: What's Next for Bitcoin's Cycle?

🐂 The current market environment suggests we are in a strategic holding pattern, a crucial preparatory phase rather than the peak exuberance of a bull run. The "calm situation" indicated by the CVD is a temporary state, destined to give way to significant price movements. The primary catalysts for this shift will undoubtedly be a change in the behavior of Long-Term Holders and the re-engagement of whale investors.

If Bitcoin decisively breaks through the critical resistance levels, particularly the $94,000 mark and subsequently the $100,000 psychological barrier, it could trigger the long-awaited profit-taking by LTHs. This would initiate the classic transfer of supply from patient LTHs to more eager Short-Term Holders, a historical signal of a maturing bull run heading towards its peak. For investors, this implies that volatility is likely to surge, presenting both immense opportunities and heightened risks.

While the strong conviction of LTHs mitigates the risk of prolonged investor fatigue, a failure to break significant resistance could lead to further downside retesting. However, the overarching outlook, reinforced by the analyst's view that "there has not been a real rally in this cycle," strongly points towards a potential for substantial, as-yet-unrealized upside. This aligns with the idea that the true "greed peak" and the most explosive phase of this market cycle are still on the horizon for 2025.

🔮 Thoughts & Predictions

The current consolidation, driven by the inactivity of Bitcoin's most patient investors, is a textbook setup for a significant market move. It’s not just about price; it’s about a deeply ingrained supply dynamic. I believe the extended period of LTH accumulation, particularly around the $90,000-$100,000 ceiling, is indicative of a coiled spring, not a spent bull.

Awaiting a compelling profit condition, the market holds its breath.

While the market may feel stagnant, the analyst's observation that "there has not been a real rally in this cycle" is critical. This suggests that the phase of extreme speculative euphoria, often characterized by rapid price appreciation and widespread FOMO, is yet to fully unfold. Historically, it's during these periods that LTHs begin their strategic distribution, feeding new demand and marking the true peak of a cycle. Expect a rapid acceleration once the $94,000 selling wall is breached, potentially propelling Bitcoin well beyond $100,000 in the medium term, with subsequent targets emerging based on supply absorption rates.

The patience of these long-term holders will ultimately be rewarded, and their eventual profit-taking will signal a much more volatile, but potentially lucrative, market environment for astute traders. Investors should prepare for this shift, as the current calm is merely the precursor to the next wave of significant price action. The true test for this cycle's longevity will be how quickly short-term holders absorb the distributed supply without collapsing demand.

🎯 Investor Action Tips

Monitor On-Chain Data: Keep a close eye on metrics like the Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) and LTH supply held. A sustained upward shift in CVD or a significant decline in LTH holdings could signal the start of a major rally or distribution phase.
Watch Key Resistance Levels: The $94,000 selling wall and the psychological $100,000 mark are critical. A decisive breakthrough on high volume would be a strong bullish indicator for entry or increased exposure.
Prepare for Increased Volatility: The current calm is unlikely to last. Have a clear strategy for managing potential rapid price swings, including setting stop-loss orders and profit targets to protect capital and lock in gains.
Assess Your Risk Appetite: With the potential for significant market movement, re-evaluate your portfolio's risk exposure. Consider whether your current Bitcoin allocation aligns with the potential for both explosive upside and correctional pullbacks.

📘 Glossary for Serious Investors

📈 Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD): An on-chain indicator that measures the difference between buying and selling volume, providing insight into aggressive market pressure. A flatlining CVD suggests a balance between buyers and sellers, often preceding a significant move.

💎 Long-Term Holders (LTHs): Bitcoin investors who hold their BTC for an extended period, typically over 155 days. They are often considered the most conviction-driven and patient cohort, accumulating in bear markets and distributing in bull markets.

🏎️ Short-Term Holders (STHs): Bitcoin investors who hold their BTC for less than 155 days. This cohort is often more reactive to market volatility and typically receives supply from LTHs during strong bullish phases.

🧭 Context of the Day

Bitcoin's current calm, driven by patient long-term holders awaiting compelling profits, signals a coiled market awaiting its true explosive rally.

📈 BITCOIN Market Trend Last 7 Days

Date	Price (USD)	7D Change
12/16/2025	$86,413.92	+0.00%
12/17/2025	$87,821.89	+1.63%
12/18/2025	$86,064.95	-0.40%
12/19/2025	$85,450.33	-1.12%
12/20/2025	$88,103.86	+1.96%
12/21/2025	$88,347.94	+2.24%
12/22/2025	$88,577.42	+2.50%
12/23/2025	$89,718.29	+3.82%

Data provided by CoinGecko Integration.

Search This Blog

Real-Time Cryptocurrency News and Insights | Coin Views

XRP Price Analysis Double Bottom: Bullish Signal Ignites $2.5 Price Target Hopes