Bitcoin Spot Demand Shows US Weakness: A $74k Reality Check for Bulls

Fading institutional interest on Coinbase suggests BTC is entering a period of prolonged exhaustion.

Bitcoin's $74K Reality Check: The US Spot Demand Evaporation and What It Means for Your Portfolio

Bitcoin entered the weekend under heavy selling pressure, decisively losing the critical $80,000 support level. It's now plumbing the $74,000 area, a price point not seen since April 2025. This isn't just a dip; it's a stark signal that the market's previous "corrective pause" is likely morphing into a broader, more ominous bearish phase.

The price weakness isn't coincidental. It aligns perfectly with a glaring drop in demand, particularly from US-based investors. On-chain data is now screaming this dynamic, and any seasoned observer can feel the chill in the air.

Diminishing signals from US exchanges warn of a treacherous path ahead for the BTC price.

BTC Price Trend Last 7 Days

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A recent CryptoQuant report has exposed a significant structural shift. Compare early 2025 (February–April) to the period from November 2025 through today: the difference is night and day.

🏛️ Earlier in the year, the Coinbase Premium Index might have briefly dipped negative. Those discounts, however, were quickly absorbed. They were tactical selling events, not a sustained absence of buyers. They hinted at healthy market dynamics, where dips were bought.

🏛️ The current environment is materially different. Negative Coinbase Premium readings are now deeper and, critically, more persistent. This isn't just a brief pause; it means US spot demand simply isn't stepping in to cushion the downside. Even after significant price adjustments, those discounts linger, screaming that buyers are firmly on the sidelines.

As Bitcoin flirts with levels unseen in almost a year, this weakening spot demand isn't just a concern. It raises the very real risk that further downside is on the table before any durable base can form. The rug, it seems, is being pulled from beneath.

📌 The Great US Spot Demand Retreat: A New Market Reality

🏛️ The CryptoQuant report isn't just pointing out a minor fluctuation. It's highlighting a fundamental shift. The behavior of the Coinbase Premium is a clear departure from earlier, more bullish phases of this cycle.

Negative prints are no longer fleeting. They are deeper, extended, and show only weak, short-lived recoveries. This isn't simple selling pressure; it’s a sustained, conspicuous absence of US spot demand, even as prices continue to slide lower.

The loss of the $80k level signals a breakdown in the structural support for BTC.

Of course, short-term discounts can appear for various reasons: macro shocks, liquidation cascades, or a bout of risk aversion. However, when that premium remains negative after the price has already adjusted significantly, it’s a clear red flag. It signals that the historically stabilizing force of US-based spot participants is nowhere to be found.

In practice, this plays out brutally. Downside moves aren’t being absorbed by fresh capital on US exchanges. Any rebounds we see are hollow, lacking conviction from spot demand, and thus, they fade quickly. This leaves price action increasingly dictated by the speculative whims of derivatives and leverage, rather than by genuine capital allocation.

🏛️ Compared to spring 2025, US spot demand is now unequivocally weaker in both magnitude and persistence. Until the Coinbase Premium can turn positive and hold for a sustained period, any talk of upside momentum is structurally fragile. Bitcoin remains vulnerable to more downward pressure.

📌 Weekly Chart Breakdown: When Support Becomes Resistance

The weekly Bitcoin chart provides a harsh, visual confirmation of this structural deterioration. After topping out above $120,000 in mid-2025, Bitcoin has been carving out a sequence of lower highs and lower lows. This isn't just consolidation; it's a textbook transition from expansion to distribution.

The recent breakdown toward the $74,000–$77,000 area marks the first visit to these levels since April 2025. This confirms that the prior demand zone has utterly failed to hold the line. For any technical analyst worth their salt, this is a glaring warning sign.

From a trend perspective, Bitcoin is now trading decisively below its 50-week moving average. This critical indicator, which served as dynamic support throughout much of the bull run, has started to roll over. The inability to reclaim it screams weakening medium-term momentum.

Even the 100-week moving average, currently hovering near the mid-$80,000s, has flipped into resistance. This further reinforces the bearish structure, brick by painful brick. Meanwhile, the 200-week moving average lurks well below, near the low-$60,000 region, serving as a potential downside magnet if the selling pressure intensifies. Don't forget, these long-term averages often act as psychological anchors, and seeing them breached or flipped is rarely good news.

Western capital flows into BTC are drying up as the Coinbase Premium hits new lows.

Volume dynamics only add to the caution. The recent selling waves accompanying this breakdown have been marked by elevated volume compared to earlier consolidation phases. This isn't passive drifting; it's active distribution. While the latest candle might show a modest rebound, it utterly lacks follow-through, confirming its corrective, not trend-reversing, nature.

The chart strongly suggests Bitcoin is in a critical transition phase toward a broader bearish regime. Unless price can decisively reclaim the $85,000–$90,000 zone with conviction, rallies are merely opportunities for the smart money to offload. The risk remains heavily skewed toward a deeper test of long-term demand levels.

📌 ⚖️ Stakeholder Analysis & Historical Parallel

The current market weakness, specifically the vanishing US spot demand, reminds me vividly of "The Great Crypto Crash of 2021." That year, following a euphoric early run, Bitcoin saw a brutal correction from May to July. From a peak around $64,000, it tumbled to roughly $30,000.

The outcome then was a cascading effect: initial regulatory FUD (especially China's mining ban and broader crackdown) combined with institutional deleveraging triggered massive liquidations. Crucially, like today, retail spot buyers largely vanished. They simply didn't step in to absorb the downside, leading to a prolonged period of consolidation and fear. The lesson learned was stark: when spot demand disappears, no amount of bullish sentiment can hold back the tide, especially when derivatives markets are overleveraged.

In my view, this appears to be a calculated, sophisticated deleveraging by institutional players. Unlike 2021, where much of the panic felt organic, today's market is far more integrated with traditional finance. The "big money" isn't caught off guard; they're orchestrating exits and repositioning. They know precisely how to suppress spot buying interest while managing their own exposures, often using derivatives to drive prices lower. The outcome is similar – painful for retail – but the underlying mechanics are far more refined, more surgical.

The key difference today is the maturity of the market. In 2021, a significant rebound was sparked by new institutional interest later in the year. Today, those same institutions are already deeply embedded. This suggests that the current weakness might be a longer, more drawn-out affair, as they're not necessarily waiting to "re-enter" but rather actively re-pricing and consolidating positions.

Stakeholder	Position/Key Detail
👥 US-based Investors	💰 Absent from spot market, persistent negative Coinbase Premium; staying on sidelines.
🏛️ Institutional Players	Likely orchestrating deleveraging; using derivatives to influence price; sophisticated exits.
💰 Derivatives Market	Increasingly driving price action due to lack of spot support; high leverage risk.

📌 🔑 Key Takeaways

• US spot demand for Bitcoin has

  🏛️ evaporated, as evidenced by persistently negative Coinbase Premium Index readings, indicating a critical lack of buying support.

  

  Finding a genuine floor for BTC requires a complete reset of investor sentiment and liquidity.

• Bitcoin has broken crucial $80,000 support, signaling a structural deterioration on weekly charts and a potential shift into a broader bearish regime.
• Price action is now largely driven by derivatives and leverage, rather than fundamental spot buying, increasing market fragility and volatility.
• Historical parallels suggest that a sustained absence of spot demand often leads to prolonged corrections and significant deleveraging across the market.

🔮 Thoughts & Predictions

The current market dynamics, mirroring the sophisticated deleveraging tactics seen in 2021, suggest that Bitcoin's price could test the low-$60,000 region in the medium term, aligning with the 200-week moving average and acting as a major liquidity sink. This isn't just about retail panic; it’s about institutional players systematically unwinding risk and driving a controlled drawdown to more attractive re-entry points, perhaps around $62,000-$65,000, before any meaningful reversal.

The prolonged weakness in US spot demand implies that any short-term rebounds will likely be fragile and quickly sold into, failing to reclaim key resistance levels like the $85,000-$90,000 zone. Expect heightened volatility driven by derivatives liquidations, making for choppy and unpredictable price action. This environment is ripe for "shakeouts" that disproportionately affect overleveraged retail positions while sophisticated investors accumulate lower.

Looking further out, if the market can establish a durable base around the $60,000-$70,000 range, we might see a shift in investor sentiment by Q4 2025, with capital flowing into higher-conviction, infrastructure-focused crypto projects rather than chasing speculative price action in Bitcoin initially. The lesson from 2021 was that recovery took time and a new narrative; this time, it might be regulatory clarity or real-world adoption driving the next leg up, not just hype.

🎯 Investor Action Tips

• Monitor Coinbase Premium: Track this index closely. A sustained return to positive values would signal a potential return of crucial US spot demand and a more bullish outlook.
• Re-evaluate Risk Exposure: Consider trimming positions or setting tighter stop-loss orders around key psychological levels like $70,000 to manage downside risk during this deleveraging phase.
• Research Long-Term Demand Zones: Deepen your research into Bitcoin's historical support levels, especially the 200-week moving average (currently low-$60,000s), as potential accumulation targets if the correction deepens.
• Focus on Fundamental Strength: Shift focus from pure price action to projects with strong fundamentals, clear utility, and robust development, as these may offer more resilience during a bearish market and lead the next cycle.

📘 Glossary for Serious Investors

Coinbase Premium Index: A metric that measures the price difference between Bitcoin on Coinbase (primarily US institutional flow) and other exchanges. A negative premium indicates weaker US spot buying pressure relative to global markets.

Moving Average (MA): A widely used technical indicator that smooths out price data over a specific period, revealing trend direction. The 50-week, 100-week, and 200-week MAs are crucial for identifying long-term support and resistance levels.

Deleveraging: The process by which investors reduce their financial leverage (debt) by selling assets or repaying loans. In crypto, it often involves liquidating leveraged positions to reduce risk exposure.

🧭 Context of the Day

The persistent absence of US spot demand signals a calculated institutional deleveraging, forcing Bitcoin into a potentially prolonged bearish phase where only disciplined investors will thrive.

📈 BITCOIN Market Trend Last 7 Days

Date	Price (USD)	7D Change
1/28/2026	$89,204.22	+0.00%
1/29/2026	$89,162.10	-0.05%
1/30/2026	$84,570.41	-5.19%
1/31/2026	$84,141.78	-5.68%
2/1/2026	$78,725.86	-11.75%
2/2/2026	$76,937.06	-13.75%
2/3/2026	$78,648.25	-11.83%

Data provided by CoinGecko Integration.

💬 Investment Wisdom

"In a bear market, the person who realizes they are in a trap first is the only one who survives."
— Legendary Floor Trader

Crypto Market Pulse

February 3, 2026, 07:10 UTC

Total Market Cap

$2.73 T ▲ 2.59% (24h)

Bitcoin Dominance (BTC)

57.65%

Ethereum Dominance (ETH)

10.26%

Total 24h Volume

$158.97 B

Data from CoinGecko

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