Bitcoin Whales Not Buying BTC: CryptoQuant Researcher Dismisses Whale Activity as Price Driver

Observing the intro market, a colossal whale navigates through opportunities.

Bitcoin's $90K Surge: Don't Be Fooled, Whale Activity Signals Waning Demand, Not Bullish Momentum

The cryptocurrency market, ever a whirlwind of excitement and anxiety, kicked off the new year with a palpable buzz. Bitcoin, the undisputed king, briefly soared past the $90,000 mark on Friday, January 2nd, igniting hopes for a sustained bull run. However, as experienced crypto investors, we know better than to take surface-level rallies at face value. A deeper dive into on-chain data, particularly concerning the movements of large holders, reveals a far more nuanced, and potentially concerning, picture.

This surge, while impressive, isn't being fueled by the typical heavyweights. Contrary to popular belief and often misleading narratives, Bitcoin whales are not in an accumulation phase. In fact, the smart money appears to be pulling back, a signal that demands serious attention from anyone navigating these volatile waters.

Examining the chart replacement data, the researcher focuses on key indicators.

📌 Diving Deep: The Truth About Bitcoin Whale Holdings

Event Background and Significance: Unpacking On-Chain Realities

🐻 For years, tracking the movements of "whales"—addresses holding substantial amounts of Bitcoin (typically over 1,000 BTC)—has been a cornerstone of on-chain analysis. The assumption is that these large holders, often institutional players or early adopters, possess deeper insights and their buying or selling patterns dictate major market trends. When whales accumulate, it’s seen as a strong bullish signal. When they distribute, a bear market often follows.

BTC Price Trend Last 7 Days

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However, recent analysis from CryptoQuant's head of research, Julio Moreno, challenges this conventional wisdom. In a pivotal post, Moreno highlighted a critical flaw in how much of the market interprets whale data: the inclusion of exchange wallet addresses. Exchanges, in their operational capacity, frequently consolidate user funds into fewer, larger cold storage addresses. This operational necessity can dramatically skew raw "whale holding" metrics, making it appear as though independent whales are accumulating when, in reality, it's just an exchange re-organizing its own, aggregated holdings.

This distinction is critically important now more than ever. The crypto market in 2025 is more mature, with institutional players and regulated products like Spot Bitcoin ETFs having a significant presence. The proliferation of these entities means that simple, raw on-chain metrics need rigorous filtering to truly reflect independent investor behavior. Failing to do so can lead to false signals, encouraging risky decisions based on incomplete or misinterpreted data.

The Data Doesn't Lie: Whale & Dolphin Balances Decline

Moreno’s research, based on CryptoQuant’s "Total Whale Holdings and Monthly % Change" and "Total Dolphin Holdings and Monthly % Change" charts, paints a clear picture. After excluding exchange wallet addresses—a crucial methodological adjustment—the total balance of addresses holding more than 1,000 BTC (whales) and those holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC (dolphins, a category often capturing ETF holdings) shows a distinct decline. This isn't just a minor dip; it signifies a consistent trend of waning demand from the largest market participants.

This declining trend directly contradicts the narrative that a significant price jump, like the recent push past $90,000, is underpinned by conviction buys from institutional money. Historically, a lack of apparent demand growth from these large holders has been a telltale sign of an impending correction phase for Bitcoin. Past cycles vividly demonstrate how rallies unsupported by genuine large-scale accumulation often prove unsustainable, leading to painful drawdowns.

📌 Market Impact Analysis: A Cautious Outlook

Short-Term vs. Long-Term Effects

In the short term, the market's initial reaction to this data might be muted as retail investors and momentum traders continue to chase upward trends. However, the persistent decline in genuine whale and dolphin holdings suggests that current price action may lack the fundamental support needed for a sustained upward trajectory. We could see increased volatility as the market attempts to reconcile this conflicting information.

Analyzing middle market data, declining trends cause analyst concern.

🐻 Long-term, this trend, if it continues, points towards a potential shift in market sentiment. Without new, substantial capital flowing in from large entities, Bitcoin’s price growth may stagnate or even reverse into a correction. This doesn't necessarily spell doom for crypto, but it does highlight a period where careful due diligence and risk management become paramount. Investors should prepare for a potential period of consolidation or even a bear market, rather than blindly chasing new highs.

Investor Sentiment and Sector Transformations

⚖️ Investor sentiment, particularly among institutions, is clearly shifting. The enthusiasm surrounding the initial launch of Spot Bitcoin ETFs has softened, as evidenced by consistent outflows. This reflects either profit-taking, a re-evaluation of Bitcoin's immediate prospects, or a shift of capital into other asset classes. For individual investors, this means the "easy money" phase, if it ever existed, is over. Success will hinge on understanding genuine demand signals over hype.

⚖️ This trend will impact various sectors differently. Stablecoins might see increased usage as investors seek safe havens. DeFi protocols with strong fundamentals and transparent liquidity might become attractive for yield, but overall TVL (Total Value Locked) could decline if capital leaves the ecosystem. NFTs, often more speculative, could suffer disproportionately in a market driven by declining institutional interest, unless they demonstrate clear utility or IP value.

📌 Key Stakeholders’ Positions: Navigating Conflicting Signals

Understanding the positions of key players is crucial for investors trying to make sense of the market's conflicting signals.

CryptoQuant and On-Chain Analysts: Experts like Julio Moreno advocate for a more sophisticated approach to on-chain data, emphasizing the need to filter out noise (like exchange addresses) to gain accurate insights into genuine demand. Their position is that the market is currently misinterpreting key accumulation metrics.

⚖️ Bitcoin Exchanges: While their operational practices of consolidating funds inadvertently skew some on-chain data, they are not necessarily "against" the market. Their role is to facilitate trading, and their actions are driven by security and efficiency, not market manipulation, though the effect can be misleading to untrained eyes.

⚖️ Spot Bitcoin ETF Issuers (e.g., BlackRock): These firms are responding to market demand, or lack thereof. The consistent net outflows from funds like BlackRock’s IBIT ($244 million last week, marking its 2nd consecutive weekly withdrawal and 8 out of the last 10 weeks with outflows) clearly indicate institutional selling pressure or insufficient new institutional demand to offset existing investors reducing exposure. Total crypto funds saw approximately $446 million in net outflows last week, highlighting a broader trend.

Visualizing middle market dynamics, blockchain nodes show fluctuating activity.

For investors, this means it's imperative to look beyond the headlines of daily price movements and focus on the underlying fundamentals of demand and supply from serious capital. The divergence between perceived market momentum and actual large-holder activity presents both a risk of correction and an opportunity for those who can identify when and where genuine accumulation begins again.

📌 Future Outlook: Evolving Market Dynamics

The crypto market and its regulatory environment are constantly evolving. This particular insight into whale behavior suggests several potential future developments:

• Refined On-Chain Analysis: We'll likely see a greater emphasis on sophisticated on-chain metrics that meticulously filter out exchange addresses and other operational noise. Investors will demand more precise tools to gauge real demand.

• Increased Volatility: The divergence between perceived retail interest and institutional caution could lead to sustained periods of high volatility. Minor positive news might trigger quick pumps, while underlying selling pressure from large holders could lead to equally swift corrections.

• Shifting narratives: The market narrative might shift from "whales accumulating" to "institutional selling pressure" or "lack of new institutional demand." This could temper speculative enthusiasm and lead to a more mature, but potentially less euphoric, market.

• Opportunities in a Downturn: If a significant correction materializes, it could present excellent buying opportunities for long-term investors. Identifying projects with strong fundamentals, real-world utility, and resilient communities will be key during such a period.

• Regulatory Scrutiny: While not directly tied to whale activity, the performance of ETFs and the overall stability of the crypto market will continue to inform regulatory bodies. Consistent outflows or periods of high instability could attract further scrutiny regarding investor protection.

  

  Representing the last bastion of Bitcoin's resilience amidst changing tides.

Stakeholder	Position/Key Detail
CryptoQuant Researcher (Julio Moreno)	🏢 Whale/Dolphin holdings are declining (excluding exchanges); warns of waning demand and potential correction.
🏢 Bitcoin Exchanges	Operational consolidation of funds skews public perception of whale accumulation.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs (e.g., BlackRock IBIT)	🏛️ 🆕 Experiencing significant net outflows; indicative of institutional selling pressure or lack of new demand.

📌 🔑 Key Takeaways

• Misleading Whale Data: Traditional "whale activity" metrics are being skewed by exchange address consolidation, leading to a false perception of accumulation.
• Genuine Decline in Holdings: When exchange wallets are excluded, actual Bitcoin whale (>1,000 BTC) and dolphin (100-1,000 BTC) balances are declining, signaling waning large-investor demand.
• Bearish Signal: This lack of genuine demand growth from large holders often precedes market corrections and potential bear markets, contradicting the recent price surge's bullish implications.
• ETF Outflows Confirm Trend: Major Spot Bitcoin ETFs, like BlackRock's IBIT, are experiencing consistent net outflows, reinforcing the narrative of institutional selling pressure or lack of new capital.

🔮 Thoughts & Predictions

The recent push above $90,000 for Bitcoin, while exhilarating for many, appears to be a classic example of a "dead cat bounce" or a retail-driven momentum play rather than a foundational shift. My analysis suggests that the true institutional capital and conviction buys are conspicuously absent, indicating a medium-term bearish outlook for Bitcoin's price trajectory. The divergence between a rising price and declining genuine large-holder balances is a red flag, reminiscent of similar top formations in previous cycles where easy liquidity masked underlying weakness.

Specifically, the consistent outflows from flagship Spot Bitcoin ETFs are not just noise; they represent substantial capital withdrawing from the market. While not as dramatic as the 2022 crash, this signals a cooling of institutional interest and a shift towards de-risking. Expect Bitcoin to likely face significant resistance around the $95,000-$100,000 range, and a retest of lower support levels, potentially even dipping back towards $70,000-$75,000, looks increasingly probable in the coming months as this waning demand plays out.

The crucial takeaway here is that not all pumps are created equal. This current rally lacks the robust, long-term accumulation from serious players. Investors should therefore adjust their expectations and strategies accordingly. The smart money is signaling caution, and those who heed this warning will be better positioned to navigate the market's likely turbulence ahead.

🎯 Investor Action Tips

• Monitor Filtered On-Chain Data: Prioritize on-chain analytics platforms that specifically exclude exchange addresses when tracking whale and dolphin holdings to get a truer picture of accumulation/distribution.
• Watch ETF Flow Closely: Track daily and weekly net flows of major Spot Bitcoin ETFs (e.g., IBIT) as a key indicator of current institutional sentiment and demand.
• Consider De-Risking/Rebalancing: If your portfolio is heavily skewed towards Bitcoin, evaluate taking some profits or rebalancing into stablecoins or less volatile assets to prepare for potential corrections.
• Identify Strong Fundamentals: Use a potential downturn as an opportunity to research and accumulate high-conviction projects with solid technology, clear use cases, and transparent tokenomics at lower valuations.

📘 Glossary for Serious Investors

🐳 Whale Holdings: Refers to the total balance of Bitcoin held by addresses with more than 1,000 BTC, often considered large, influential market participants.

🐬 Dolphin Holdings: Represents the total balance of Bitcoin held by addresses with between 100 and 1,000 BTC, often including significant individual investors or smaller institutional funds like ETFs.

🔗 On-Chain Data: Information directly recorded on a blockchain, such as transaction volumes, address balances, and network activity, providing transparency into market movements.

🧭 Context of the Day

Today's Bitcoin rally lacks genuine institutional backing, signaling a potential correction for investors prioritizing informed decision-making over hype.

📈 BITCOIN Market Trend Last 7 Days

Date	Price (USD)	7D Change
12/28/2025	$87,807.00	+0.00%
12/29/2025	$87,822.91	+0.02%
12/30/2025	$87,156.56	-0.74%
12/31/2025	$88,414.63	+0.69%
1/1/2026	$87,520.18	-0.33%
1/2/2026	$88,727.67	+1.05%
1/3/2026	$89,926.28	+2.41%
1/4/2026	$90,086.01	+2.60%

Data provided by CoinGecko Integration.

💬 Investment Wisdom

"The time to buy is when there's blood in the streets."
— Baron Rothschild

Crypto Market Pulse

January 3, 2026, 19:42 UTC

Total Market Cap

$3.16 T ▲ 0.33% (24h)

Bitcoin Dominance (BTC)

56.92%

Ethereum Dominance (ETH)

11.88%

Total 24h Volume

$77.80 B

Data from CoinGecko

This post builds upon insights from the original news article. Original article.

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